Glacier Lake Outburst Flood Risk Modeling for Flood Management

Abstract

newline In recent years snow covered areas have been affected by climate change and newlineglobal heating throughout the world, and itand#8223;s a major concern for the future. In the newlineHimalayan range, the warming in the last three decades ranged amidst 0.15°C and newline0.60°C per decade. Due to the rise in temperature in the Himalayas, retreating of glaciers newlineand formation of new glacial lakes are taking place at an alarming rate. Therefore, there newlineis considerable expansion and development of glacial lakes. Generally, at the snout of the newlineglacier, the lakes are mainly obstructed by the lateral and end moraine known as dams . newlineThese damsand#8223; are unstable and may breach suddenly, releasing the catastrophic amount newlineof water and debris, known as glacier lake outburst flood (GLOF). Such glacial lakes newlinehave become a threat to the people and their property living in the valley due to un- newlinestability and catastrophic drainage. Due to these outbursts, they may cause potential newlinedamage to human lives and properties at lower reaches. A number of GLOF events newlinereported in the Himalayas also have trans-boundary impacts. newlineRegular monitoring and identification of critical glacial lakes, and GLOF prone newlineareas are needed to reduce the intensity associated with the GLOF. These lakes are newlinegenerally inaccessible though can be considered as remnant of glacier if located above newline3500 msl. In the adverse topographic conditions of the Himalayas, GIS and remote newlinesensing serves as an essential tool as it becomes a tiresome, precarious, and prolonged newlinelabour-intensive task to monitor the changes in glacial and glacial lakes by conventional newlinefield methods. In the present study, Satluj basin has been considered as the study area. This newlinebasin experiences frequent floods, erratic distribution of rainfall, and climatic newlinevariabilities, which causes extensive damages over the basin. Precipitation is one of the newlinemost crucial meteorological variables which determines the impact of climate change in newlinethe Himalayan landmass.