Vulnerability Assessment of Settlements on Gangetic Alluvial Flood Plain Along River Course

Abstract

Presently, sustainability of floodplain, a diverse element of the riverine landscape, provides newlinean ideal research setting for investigating complex interaction between anthropogenic newlinedisturbance and eco-environmental degradation. Nowadays, these floodplains are continually newlinedegraded and fragmented on account of unsustainable land use. Suitable site selection for newlinesustainable human settlements in active floodplain areas is a critical task for decision-makers newlinein terms of quality of lithology, ecologically fragile landmass, climate-induced hazards, newlineimmense population pressure, and environmental conservation issues. newlinePresent research assessed the trends of landuse/landcover changes of riverine floodplain for newlinelast three decades through a supervised classification (maximum likelihood algorithm) method newlineand predicted the probable transformations of the same for coming decades based on a Cellular newlineAutomata-Artificial Neuron Network (CA-ANN) model clubbed with Modules for Land Use newlineChange Evaluation (MOLUSCE) plugin of QGIS software. As a case study, an altered newlinehydrological regime of lower Ganga riparian zone was chosen to analyze future riverine newlinelandscape dynamics as those areas are most susceptible to riverine hazards. Outcome of newlineresearch reveals that the trend of agriculture land, sand, and inland waterbody areas is reduced newlineby 15.75%, 5.71%, and 1.95%, whereas, for orchard, agricultural fallow and bare land areas newlineincreased by 7.94%, 7.92%, and 5.69% for the period from 1998 to 2018. The significant newlinereduction of agricultural land and sand areas is largely an attribute to floodplain degradation newlinein an altered hydrological regime. Ultimately, hydro-morphological changes, increasing newlinepopulation pressure, and agriculture intensification in floodplain landscape were identified as newlinemain driving forces in temporal landuse/landcover changes. The simulation model predicted newlinethe continuation of the trend in degradation of the floodplain resulting in increasing newlinevulnerability of livelihood. newline